PGA Tour: FedEx St. Jude Championship Winner

Platform comparison

Market context

The 2026 FedEx St. Jude Championship will take place in August at TPC Southwind in Memphis, Tennessee, as part of the PGA Tour's FedEx Cup playoffs. The tournament typically attracts the tour's top-ranked players competing for both prize money and playoff positioning. The current 6% implied probability on this particular contract reflects a listed player with moderate odds relative to the broader field, suggesting either a player ranked outside the immediate favourites or one facing recent form concerns.

Historical resolution patterns for FedEx St. Jude markets show that favourites—players ranked in the top 10 of the world rankings—win approximately 40–50% of the time, whilst mid-tier contenders (ranked 11–30) account for roughly 30–35% of victories. The remaining share splits between longer-odds players and "Other" resolutions when unlisted competitors prevail. A 6% probability sits comfortably within the range for players typically seeded between 20th and 40th in pre-tournament rankings, though injury status or recent tournament withdrawals can shift these baselines significantly.

Traders should monitor PGA Tour injury reports and FedEx Cup standings updates through spring and early summer 2026, as eligibility depends on maintaining tour membership and avoiding tournament-specific disqualifications. Recent precedent from comparable events suggests sportsbook lines often price listed players 1–2 percentage points higher than prediction markets, reflecting their tighter margin structures. Watch for official field announcements approximately two weeks before the tournament; these typically trigger modest repricing across both platforms as the full competitor list crystallises.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.