Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
81% | 19% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
81% | 19% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | 81% |
| S.Y. Noh | 50% |
| Kurt Kitayama | 44% |
| Tom Kim | 44% |
| Maverick McNealy | 43% |
| Hideki Matsuyama | 39% |
| Jackson Koivun | 36% |
| Jordan L. Smith | 32% |
| Sung-Jae Im | 31% |
| Mac Meissner | 31% |
| Jake Knapp | 30% |
| Ben Kohles | 30% |
| Pierceson Coody | 29% |
| Jackson Suber | 28% |
| Johnny Keefer | 27% |
| Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen | 27% |
| Casey Jarvis | 27% |
| Keith Mitchell | 26% |
| Michael Brennan | 26% |
| Brian Harman | 26% |
| Corey Conners | 25% |
| Gary Woodland | 25% |
| Benjamin James | 25% |
| Max McGreevy | 25% |
| William Mouw | 24% |
| Max Homa | 23% |
| Sam Stevens | 23% |
| Tony Finau | 22% |
| Max Greyserman | 22% |
| Michael Kim | 22% |
| Zac Blair | 22% |
| Christiaan Bezuidenhout | 21% |
| Kevin Yu | 21% |
| Beau Hossler | 21% |
| John Parry | 21% |
| Lucas Glover | 21% |
| Zach Bauchou | 21% |
| Ricky Castillo | 20% |
| Steven Fisk | 20% |
| Keita Nakajima | 20% |
| Doug Ghim | 19% |
| Sudarshan Yellamaraju | 19% |
| Rico Hoey | 19% |
| Lee Hodges | 19% |
| Davis Thompson | 18% |
| Aldrich Potgieter | 18% |
| Emiliano Grillo | 18% |
| Taylor Pendrith | 17% |
| Taylor Moore | 17% |
| Andrew Putnam | 17% |
| Denny McCarthy | 17% |
| Seamus Power | 17% |
| Takumi Kanaya | 17% |
| Chris Kirk | 17% |
| Austin Smotherman | 17% |
| Kevin Roy | 17% |
| Preston Stout | 16% |
| Jesper Svensson | 16% |
| Matt Kuchar | 16% |
| Joel Dahmen | 16% |
| Stephan Jaeger | 14% |
| Hao-Tong Li | 14% |
| Ze-Cheng Dou | 14% |
| Austin Eckroat | 14% |
| Brandt Snedeker | 14% |
| Mackenzie Hughes | 13% |
| Billy Horschel | 13% |
| Patrick Fishburn | 13% |
| Tom Hoge | 13% |
| David Lipsky | 13% |
| Thorbjorn Olesen | 12% |
| A.J. Ewart | 12% |
| Kristoffer Ventura | 12% |
| Chad Ramey | 12% |
| Karl Vilips | 12% |
| Aaron Wise | 12% |
| Patrick Rodgers | 11% |
| Adrien Dumont De Chassart | 11% |
| Garrick Higgo | 11% |
| Matthieu Pavon | 11% |
| Luke Clanton | 10% |
| David Skinns | 10% |
| Chandler Phillips | 10% |
| Lanto Griffin | 10% |
| Ryder Cowan | 9% |
| Pontus Nyholm | 9% |
| Trace Crowe | 9% |
| Adam Hadwin | 9% |
| Erik Van Rooyen | 8% |
| Nick Dunlap | 8% |
| Harry Higgs | 8% |
| Mark Hubbard | 8% |
| Neal Shipley | 7% |
| Vince Whaley | 7% |
| Hayden Springer | 6% |
| Cameron Champ | 6% |
| Jimmy Stanger | 6% |
| Gordon Sargent | 5% |
| Luke List | 5% |
| Jason Day | 1% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 81% probability to pga tour: 3m open top 20. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed player finishes in the top 20 at the 2026 3M Open tournament, including ties. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If final results are not anno…
Methodology
This page reviews PGA Tour: 3M Open Top 20 across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Trade PGA Tour: 3M Open Top 20 on PolyGram
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