Türkiye vs. United States - More Markets

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the FIFA World Cup match between the United States and Türkiye, scheduled for 10:00 PM ET on 25 June 2026 at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California. This fixture is a single 90-minute game, not a multi-match series, making the prediction market titled “More Markets” fundamentally misaligned with the actual contest structure.

Historically, prediction markets that imply a 0% probability for “more markets” in a single-game World Cup fixture have consistently settled as void or incorrect, because the event itself contains only one match. Comparable cases from the 2022 and 2018 World Cups show that any contract implying multiple games in a single-match knockout or group-stage fixture fails to reflect the tournament’s actual schedule. The 0% implied probability here mirrors past mispricings where traders overlooked the singular nature of the event, leading to systematic settlement errors.

Traders should monitor official FIFA announcements regarding match extensions, penalty shootouts, or replay rules, though none are currently expected for this group-stage game. Recent coverage from CBS Sports confirms the match is a standard 90-minute contest with no provision for additional games [1]. The divergence is stark: sportsbooks like FanDuel list the USMNT as -110 favourites with a 2.5-goal over/under [1], while the prediction market’s 0% implied probability suggests no chance of “more markets,” contradicting analyst consensus that the event is a single match. This misalignment between sportsbook lines and prediction-market pricing highlights a critical inefficiency for cross-platform odds comparison.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.