Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
94% | 6% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
94% | 6% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ shots | 94% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ shots | 85% |
| Nikola Vlašić: 1+ shots | 84% |
| Rafael Leão: 1+ shots | 76% |
| Ivor Pandur: 2+ saves | 65% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 4+ shots | 51% |
| João Félix: 1+ shots | 51% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Ante Budimir: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Ante Budimir: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Ante Budimir: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Ante Budimir: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Francisco Conceição: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Francisco Conceição: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Francisco Conceição: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Gonçalo Guedes: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Igor Matanović: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Ivan Perišić: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Ivan Perišić: 4+ shots | 50% |
| João Félix: 2+ shots | 50% |
| João Félix: 4+ shots | 50% |
| João Félix: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Marco Pašalić: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Nikola Vlašić: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Nikola Vlašić: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Nikola Vlašić: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Rafael Leão: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Rafael Leão: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Rafael Leão: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Toni Fruk: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Trincão: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ante Budimir: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ante Budimir: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Francisco Conceição: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Francisco Conceição: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Francisco Conceição: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Gonçalo Guedes: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Gonçalo Guedes: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Gonçalo Guedes: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Gonçalo Guedes: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Gonçalo Ramos: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Gonçalo Ramos: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Gonçalo Ramos: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Gonçalo Ramos: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Igor Matanović: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Igor Matanović: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Igor Matanović: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| João Félix: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| João Félix: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Marco Pašalić: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Marco Pašalić: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nikola Vlašić: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nikola Vlašić: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nikola Vlašić: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Petar Musa: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Petar Musa: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Petar Musa: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Rafael Leão: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Rafael Leão: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Rafael Leão: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Rafael Leão: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Toni Fruk: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Toni Fruk: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Toni Fruk: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Trincão: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Trincão: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Trincão: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ivor Pandur: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Ivor Pandur: 5+ saves | 50% |
| José Sá: 2+ saves | 50% |
| José Sá: 3+ saves | 50% |
| José Sá: 4+ saves | 50% |
| José Sá: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ante Budimir: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ante Budimir: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ante Budimir: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ivan Perišić: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ivan Perišić: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ivan Perišić: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ivan Perišić: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| João Félix: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| João Félix: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| João Félix: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| João Félix: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Marco Pašalić: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Marco Pašalić: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Marco Pašalić: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Marco Pašalić: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nikola Vlašić: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nikola Vlašić: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nikola Vlašić: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nikola Vlašić: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Diogo Costa: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Diogo Costa: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Diogo Costa: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Diogo Costa: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Dominik Livaković: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Dominik Livaković: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Dominik Livaković: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Dominik Livaković: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 4+ shots | 49% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals | 45% |
| Francisco Conceição: 1+ shots | 39% |
| Gonçalo Guedes: 1+ shots | 36% |
| Gonçalo Guedes: 1+ goals | 35% |
| João Félix: 1+ goals | 35% |
| Marco Pašalić: 1+ shots | 34% |
| Petar Musa: 1+ shots | 34% |
| Trincão: 1+ shots | 34% |
| João Félix: 1+ shots on target | 34% |
| Trincão: 1+ goals | 33% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 1+ shots on target | 33% |
| Francisco Conceição: 1+ goals | 31% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists | 31% |
| Ante Budimir: 1+ shots on target | 31% |
| Igor Matanović: 1+ goals | 30% |
| Petar Musa: 1+ goals | 30% |
| João Félix: 1+ assists | 28% |
| Francisco Conceição: 2+ shots | 27% |
| Igor Matanović: 2+ shots | 27% |
| Rafael Leão: 1+ goals | 26% |
| Petar Musa: 2+ shots | 26% |
| Toni Fruk: 1+ shots | 26% |
| Trincão: 2+ shots | 26% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 1+ assists | 26% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ shots on target | 26% |
| Ivan Perišić: 1+ shots on target | 25% |
| Gonçalo Guedes: 2+ shots | 24% |
| Marco Pašalić: 2+ shots | 24% |
| Marco Pašalić: 1+ assists | 24% |
| Petar Musa: 3+ shots | 23% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals | 22% |
| Igor Matanović: 3+ shots | 22% |
| Ante Budimir: 1+ goals | 21% |
| Trincão: 3+ shots | 21% |
| Toni Fruk: 3+ shots | 20% |
| Nikola Vlašić: 2+ shots | 19% |
| Gonçalo Guedes: 4+ shots | 18% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals | 17% |
| Ivan Perišić: 2+ shots | 17% |
| Marco Pašalić: 3+ shots | 17% |
| Petar Musa: 4+ shots | 16% |
| Toni Fruk: 5+ shots | 16% |
| João Félix: 2+ shots on target | 15% |
| Gonçalo Guedes: 5+ shots | 14% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 2+ shots on target | 14% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Ante Budimir: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Francisco Conceição: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Francisco Conceição: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Gonçalo Guedes: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Gonçalo Guedes: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Gonçalo Ramos: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Gonçalo Ramos: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Igor Matanović: 2+ goals | 13% |
| João Félix: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Marco Pašalić: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Petar Musa: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Petar Musa: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Rafael Leão: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Toni Fruk: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Trincão: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Igor Matanović: 4+ shots | 13% |
| Ivan Perišić: 3+ shots | 13% |
| Rafael Leão: 4+ shots | 13% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Ivan Perišić: 2+ assists | 13% |
| João Félix: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Nikola Vlašić: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Ante Budimir: 2+ shots on target | 13% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ shots on target | 13% |
| Ante Budimir: 1+ goals + assists | 13% |
| Nikola Vlašić: 1+ goals | 12% |
| Nikola Vlašić: 1+ assists | 12% |
| Gonçalo Ramos: 1+ goals | 11% |
| Ante Budimir: 4+ shots | 11% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 5+ shots | 11% |
| Toni Fruk: 2+ shots | 11% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 2+ assists | 11% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 2+ assists | 11% |
| Marco Pašalić: 2+ assists | 11% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Toni Fruk: 1+ goals | 10% |
| João Félix: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Petar Musa: 5+ shots | 10% |
| Ivan Perišić: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Ivan Perišić: 2+ shots on target | 10% |
| Ivor Pandur: 4+ saves | 10% |
| Trincão: 2+ goals | 9% |
| Marco Pašalić: 4+ shots | 9% |
| Trincão: 5+ shots | 8% |
| Ante Budimir: 2+ assists | 8% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Ivan Perišić: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Igor Matanović: 5+ shots | 7% |
| Marco Pašalić: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals | 5% |
| Ante Budimir: 1+ assists | 5% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Ante Budimir: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Nikola Vlašić: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Ivan Perišić: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Igor Matanović: 3+ goals | 1% |
| João Félix: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Rafael Leão: 3+ goals | 1% |
Market context
The Portugal vs. Croatia - Player Props prediction market currently prices this outcome at 94% YES. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Portugal and Croatia, scheduled for July 2 at 7:00 PM ET.
Methodology
Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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