Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
83% | 17% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
83% | 17% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Harry Kane: 1+ shots | 83% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ shots | 78% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ shots | 64% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ shots | 63% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ shots | 57% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ shots | 57% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ shots | 54% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ shots | 54% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals | 53% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ shots on target | 53% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ shots | 53% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ shots | 52% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ shots | 51% |
| Bradley Barcola: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Declan Rice: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Eberechi Eze: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Elliot Anderson: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Elliot Anderson: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Marcus Rashford: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Michael Olise: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jude Bellingham: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Dayot Upamecano: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jordan Pickford: 2+ saves | 49% |
| Declan Rice: 1+ shots | 49% |
| Bradley Barcola: 4+ shots on target | 49% |
| Désiré Doué: 4+ shots on target | 49% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Lucas Digne: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Michael Olise: 4+ shots on target | 49% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Anthony Gordon: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Bradley Barcola: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Declan Rice: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Eberechi Eze: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Elliot Anderson: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Harry Kane: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Jude Bellingham: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Manu Koné: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Morgan Rogers: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Noni Madueke: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Noni Madueke: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Rayan Cherki: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Rayan Cherki: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Théo Hernández: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Jordan Pickford: 3+ saves | 48% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Anthony Gordon: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Bukayo Saka: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Désiré Doué: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Eberechi Eze: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Manu Koné: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Marcus Rashford: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Michael Olise: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Morgan Rogers: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Rayan Cherki: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Théo Hernández: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Théo Hernández: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Jules Koundé: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ shots | 47% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Bukayo Saka: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Declan Rice: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Désiré Doué: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Elliot Anderson: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Morgan Rogers: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Brice Samba: 2+ saves | 45% |
| Anthony Gordon: 3+ shots on target | 44% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ shots | 43% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ shots on target | 43% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ shots | 43% |
| Declan Rice: 1+ shots on target | 42% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ shots on target | 42% |
| Elliot Anderson: 1+ shots on target | 41% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ shots on target | 41% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ shots on target | 40% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ shots on target | 40% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ shots on target | 40% |
| Lucas Digne: 1+ shots on target | 40% |
| Brice Samba: 3+ saves | 39% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ goals | 37% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 1+ shots | 37% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ shots on target | 37% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 4+ shots on target | 37% |
| Jordan Pickford: 5+ saves | 36% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ shots | 36% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ shots on target | 36% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ shots on target | 36% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals + assists | 36% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ shots on target | 34% |
| Brice Samba: 4+ saves | 33% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ shots on target | 33% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ shots | 32% |
| Bradley Barcola: 3+ shots on target | 32% |
| Declan Rice: 2+ shots on target | 32% |
| Michael Olise: 3+ shots on target | 32% |
| Elliot Anderson: 1+ shots | 31% |
| Jules Koundé: 1+ shots | 31% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 2+ shots on target | 31% |
| Harry Kane: 4+ shots on target | 31% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ shots on target | 31% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 2+ shots on target | 31% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 1+ shots | 30% |
| Elliot Anderson: 2+ shots on target | 30% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 4+ shots on target | 30% |
| William Saliba: 1+ shots on target | 30% |
| Rayan Cherki: 1+ goals + assists | 30% |
| Jordan Pickford: 4+ saves | 29% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ shots | 29% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals | 28% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals + assists | 27% |
| Brice Samba: 5+ saves | 26% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ assists | 26% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ goals + assists | 26% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ goals + assists | 26% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals | 25% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ shots on target | 24% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ shots | 23% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ shots on target | 23% |
| Désiré Doué: 3+ shots | 23% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ assists | 23% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ goals + assists | 23% |
| Declan Rice: 2+ goals | 22% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 1+ shots on target | 22% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ shots on target | 21% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 3+ shots on target | 21% |
| Harry Kane: 4+ shots | 21% |
| Eberechi Eze: 1+ goals + assists | 21% |
| Morgan Rogers: 1+ goals + assists | 21% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ goals + assists | 21% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 1+ shots on target | 20% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 4+ shots | 20% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals + assists | 20% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals | 19% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ goals | 19% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 1+ goals + assists | 19% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ shots | 18% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ shots | 18% |
| Marc Guéhi: 1+ shots | 18% |
| Théo Hernández: 1+ goals + assists | 18% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 2+ shots | 17% |
| Dayot Upamecano: 1+ shots | 17% |
| Lucas Digne: 1+ shots | 17% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 2+ shots | 17% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ shots on target | 17% |
| Michael Olise: 3+ shots | 17% |
| Rayan Cherki: 1+ assists | 17% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ goals | 16% |
| Elliot Anderson: 2+ shots | 16% |
| Ezri Konsa: 1+ shots | 16% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 2+ shots | 16% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ assists | 15% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Dayot Upamecano: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Ezri Konsa: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Marc Guéhi: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ assists | 14% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Morgan Rogers: 2+ assists | 14% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ goals + assists | 14% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Bradley Barcola: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Désiré Doué: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Eberechi Eze: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Elliot Anderson: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ goals | 13% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Marcus Rashford: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Michael Olise: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Morgan Rogers: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Rayan Cherki: 1+ goals | 13% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ shots on target | 13% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Eberechi Eze: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Elliot Anderson: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Rayan Cherki: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Théo Hernández: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Declan Rice: 1+ goals + assists | 13% |
| Anthony Gordon: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 2+ goals | 12% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ goals | 12% |
| Théo Hernández: 2+ goals | 12% |
| Désiré Doué: 3+ shots on target | 12% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ assists | 12% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 2+ goals | 11% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ goals | 11% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ goals | 11% |
| Eberechi Eze: 1+ goals | 11% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ goals | 11% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ goals | 11% |
| Jules Koundé: 2+ shots | 11% |
| Bradley Barcola: 3+ shots | 11% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Morgan Rogers: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Anthony Gordon: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Jules Koundé: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Lucas Digne: 2+ shots | 10% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 2+ shots on target | 10% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ goals | 9% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ goals | 9% |
| Rayan Cherki: 2+ goals | 9% |
| Rayan Cherki: 3+ goals | 9% |
| Declan Rice: 2+ shots | 9% |
| Jude Bellingham: 4+ shots | 9% |
| Michael Olise: 4+ shots | 9% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ assists | 9% |
| Eberechi Eze: 1+ assists | 9% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ assists | 9% |
| Dayot Upamecano: 2+ shots | 8% |
| Désiré Doué: 4+ shots | 8% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Morgan Rogers: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Théo Hernández: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Declan Rice: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Théo Hernández: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 3+ shots | 7% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ assists | 7% |
| Elliot Anderson: 1+ assists | 7% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 3+ shots | 6% |
| Anthony Gordon: 4+ shots | 6% |
| Dayot Upamecano: 3+ shots | 6% |
| Ezri Konsa: 2+ shots | 6% |
| Marc Guéhi: 2+ shots | 6% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 3+ shots | 6% |
| Declan Rice: 1+ assists | 6% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ assists | 6% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ assists | 6% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Elliot Anderson: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals | 5% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Declan Rice: 3+ shots | 5% |
| Elliot Anderson: 3+ shots | 5% |
| Lucas Digne: 3+ shots | 5% |
| Manu Koné: 3+ shots | 5% |
| Bradley Barcola: 4+ shots | 5% |
| Désiré Doué: 5+ shots | 5% |
| Harry Kane: 5+ shots | 5% |
| Michael Olise: 5+ shots | 5% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Jude Bellingham: 5+ shots | 4% |
| Manu Koné: 4+ shots | 4% |
| Bradley Barcola: 5+ shots | 4% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 5+ shots | 4% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ assists | 4% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ assists | 4% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ assists | 4% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ assists | 4% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 4+ shots | 3% |
| Anthony Gordon: 5+ shots | 3% |
| Declan Rice: 4+ shots | 3% |
| Elliot Anderson: 4+ shots | 3% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 4+ shots | 3% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Declan Rice: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ goals | 1% |
| William Saliba: 1+ shots | 1% |
| William Saliba: 2+ shots | 1% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 83% YES probability for France vs. England - Player Props. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between France and England, scheduled for July 18 at 5:00 PM ET.
Methodology
Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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