Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
88% | 12% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
88% | 12% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ shots | 88% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ shots | 76% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ goals | 66% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ goals + assists | 64% |
| Dailon Livramento: 1+ shots | 56% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 3+ shots | 54% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals | 50% |
| Gilson Benchimol: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Lionel Messi: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Juan Musso: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ shots | 49% |
| Dailon Livramento: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Gilson Benchimol: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| José Manuel López: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| José Manuel López: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| José Manuel López: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| José Manuel López: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Jovane Cabral: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Jovane Cabral: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Julián Álvarez: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Julián Álvarez: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Lionel Messi: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Nuno Jóia: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Nuno Jóia: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Juan Musso: 2+ saves | 48% |
| Juan Musso: 4+ saves | 48% |
| Juan Musso: 5+ saves | 48% |
| Vózinha: 2+ saves | 48% |
| Vózinha: 3+ saves | 48% |
| Vózinha: 4+ saves | 48% |
| Dailon Livramento: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Dailon Livramento: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Julián Álvarez: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Julián Álvarez: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Lionel Messi: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Lionel Messi: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ shots on target | 44% |
| Jovane Cabral: 1+ shots | 42% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ shots on target | 42% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ shots | 42% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 4+ shots | 38% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ assists | 35% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals + assists | 35% |
| Julián Álvarez: 3+ shots | 34% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals | 32% |
| Vózinha: 5+ saves | 32% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ goals | 31% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ shots on target | 31% |
| Gilson Benchimol: 1+ shots | 28% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ shots on target | 27% |
| Nuno Jóia: 1+ shots | 25% |
| Julián Álvarez: 4+ shots | 25% |
| Dailon Livramento: 4+ goals + assists | 24% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 5+ shots | 23% |
| Jovane Cabral: 2+ shots | 21% |
| Julián Álvarez: 5+ shots | 21% |
| Dailon Livramento: 2+ shots | 20% |
| Dailon Livramento: 1+ shots on target | 20% |
| Gilson Benchimol: 2+ shots | 18% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ assists | 18% |
| Nuno Jóia: 2+ shots | 16% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ assists | 16% |
| Jovane Cabral: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 3+ shots on target | 14% |
| José Manuel López: 1+ goals | 13% |
| Dailon Livramento: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ goals | 12% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Dailon Livramento: 1+ goals + assists | 12% |
| Lionel Messi: 3+ goals | 11% |
| Gilson Benchimol: 3+ shots | 11% |
| José Manuel López: 2+ goals | 10% |
| Dailon Livramento: 1+ goals | 9% |
| Dailon Livramento: 3+ shots | 9% |
| Nuno Jóia: 3+ shots | 9% |
| Jovane Cabral: 3+ shots | 8% |
| Jovane Cabral: 4+ shots | 8% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ goals | 7% |
| Gilson Benchimol: 4+ shots | 7% |
| Nuno Jóia: 4+ shots | 7% |
| Jovane Cabral: 5+ shots | 6% |
| Gilson Benchimol: 1+ goals | 5% |
| José Manuel López: 3+ goals | 5% |
| Jovane Cabral: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Dailon Livramento: 1+ assists | 5% |
| Nuno Jóia: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Dailon Livramento: 4+ shots | 4% |
| Nuno Jóia: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Julián Álvarez: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Gilson Benchimol: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Jovane Cabral: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Dailon Livramento: 2+ goals | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 88% probability to argentina vs. cabo verde - player props. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Argentina and Cabo Verde, scheduled for July 3 at 6:00 PM ET.
Methodology
We track Argentina vs. Cabo Verde - Player Props across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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