Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Ossett United FC (-1.5) | 100% |
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Ossett United FC O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Ossett United FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Abbey Hey FC (-1.5) | 0% |
| Ossett United FC (-2.5) | 0% |
| Abbey Hey FC (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Ossett United FC O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Ossett United FC O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Abbey Hey FC O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Abbey Hey FC O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Abbey Hey FC O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Ossett United FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Abbey Hey FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Abbey Hey FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Ossett United FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Ossett United FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Abbey Hey FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Abbey Hey FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Ossett United and Abbey Hey are scheduled to meet in the FA Cup on 11 August at 2:45 PM ET. The fixture represents a qualifying round encounter between two non-league sides competing in the early stages of the competition. The settlement window closes at 18:45 UTC on the same day, allowing roughly four hours post-match for official confirmation of the result and any associated markets.
The 100% implied probability across prediction markets suggests near-certainty that additional markets will be offered for this fixture. Historical precedent shows that FA Cup matches involving lower-league clubs routinely generate supplementary betting markets—goal-scorer props, correct-score predictions, and half-time/full-time combinations—across major sportsbooks within 48 hours of fixture confirmation. Comparable August qualifying rounds in prior seasons have consistently triggered secondary market launches, particularly when both clubs generate sufficient trading volume. The absence of meaningful divergence between prediction-market consensus and sportsbook expectations indicates broad agreement on market availability.
Key dependencies include official team-sheet releases, which typically occur 24 to 48 hours before kick-off and can trigger market expansion. Injury announcements or late withdrawals affecting either squad may delay or reshape the scope of available markets. Regulatory approvals from the FA and relevant gambling commissions also influence which markets sportsbooks activate. Traders should monitor official FA Cup communications and individual bookmaker announcements for confirmation of market launch timing and specific offerings.
Methodology
This page reviews Ossett United FC vs. Abbey Hey FC - More Markets across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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