Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
70% | 30% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
70% | 30% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Timofey Skatov vs Grigor Dimitrov Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 70% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Timofey Skatov vs Grigor Dimitrov Game Spread +/-4.5 | 63% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Timofey Skatov vs Grigor Dimitrov Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Timofey Skatov vs Grigor Dimitrov Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Timofey Skatov vs Grigor Dimitrov Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Timofey Skatov vs Grigor Dimitrov Match O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Timofey Skatov vs Grigor Dimitrov Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Timofey Skatov vs Grigor Dimitrov Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Timofey Skatov vs Grigor Dimitrov Match O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Timofey Skatov vs Grigor Dimitrov Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Timofey Skatov vs Grigor Dimitrov Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Timofey Skatov vs Grigor Dimitrov Match O/U 21.5 | 42% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Timofey Skatov vs Grigor Dimitrov Set 2 Winner | 21% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Timofey Skatov vs Grigor Dimitrov | 14% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Timofey Skatov vs Grigor Dimitrov Set 1 Winner | 12% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Timofey Skatov vs Grigor Dimitrov Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 8% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 70% probability to us open, qualification atp: timofey skatov vs grigor dimitrov. This market refers to the tennis match between Timofey Skatov and Grigor Dimitrov in the US Open, Qualification ATP, originally scheduled for August 26, 2026 at 12:30PM ET. This market will resolve t…
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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