Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Granby: Yuta Shimizu vs Jay Dylan Friend | 100% |
| Completed Match | 100% |
| Granby: Yuta Shimizu vs Jay Dylan Friend Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| Granby: Yuta Shimizu vs Jay Dylan Friend Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Granby: Yuta Shimizu vs Jay Dylan Friend Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Granby: Yuta Shimizu vs Jay Dylan Friend Match O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| Granby: Yuta Shimizu vs Jay Dylan Friend Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Granby: Yuta Shimizu vs Jay Dylan Friend Match O/U 22.5 | 100% |
| Granby: Yuta Shimizu vs Jay Dylan Friend Match O/U 23.5 | 100% |
| Granby: Yuta Shimizu vs Jay Dylan Friend Set 2 Winner | 0% |
| Granby: Yuta Shimizu vs Jay Dylan Friend Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| Granby: Yuta Shimizu vs Jay Dylan Friend Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| Granby: Yuta Shimizu vs Jay Dylan Friend Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Granby: Yuta Shimizu vs Jay Dylan Friend Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| Granby: Yuta Shimizu vs Jay Dylan Friend Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Granby: Yuta Shimizu vs Jay Dylan Friend Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to granby: yuta shimizu vs jay dylan friend. This market refers to the tennis match between Yuta Shimizu and Jay Dylan Friend in the Granby, originally scheduled for July 13, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Yuta Shimizu' if Yut…
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Trade Granby: Yuta Shimizu vs Jay Dylan Friend on PolyGram
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
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