Senegal vs. Iraq - Exact Score

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Market context

The FIFA World Cup match between Senegal and Iraq kicks off at 3:00 PM ET on June 26, 2026, in Toronto, with the market betting on an exact final score resolving after 90 minutes of regulation. Current crowd-implied probability for a specific outcome sits at 4%, reflecting the tight nature of exact-score contracts in football where variance is high and precision rare.

Historically, exact-score markets in World Cup group stages have shown similar low probabilities, often hovering between 2% and 5% for any single listed scoreline, as seen in comparable fixtures from 2018 and 2022 where both teams struggled to convert possession into goals. Senegal and Iraq both enter this match with two defeats and zero wins in Group I, having conceded six and three goals respectively, suggesting a defensive, low-scoring contest that further depresses the likelihood of any specific high-score outcome [1][10].

Traders should monitor pre-match training reports and confirmed line-ups, as both squads have shown defensive frailties that could lead to a 0-0 or 1-0 result rather than a multi-goal affair. Recent footage confirms both teams are training ahead of the fixture, with no major injury announcements yet, but the absence of Sadio Mané’s confirmed status remains a key dependency for Senegal’s attacking threat [6][8][9]. The divergence between sportsbook odds favouring a draw (+330) and the prediction market’s 4% exact-score probability highlights the premium placed on precision versus broader outcome betting [1][2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Senegal vs. Iraq - Exact Score across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.