Trump out as President by August 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Donald Trump leaving the presidency before 31 August 2026 is priced as a very low-probability event: Polymarket’s contract is at **1% YES**, while other political prediction venues tracking a longer-dated “before 2027” version have been materially higher, around the mid-single digits to low teens, and Kalshi’s broader departure market has been cited nearer the low-20s to 30% range depending on contract and timestamp.[2][12][16] That gap matters for cross-platform reading: this August-end contract is narrower than year-end or term-end versions, so it should trade below those longer-dated markets unless there is a concrete catalyst. The resolution language is also strict, counting only resignation, removal, or another permanent loss of office, with any qualifying public announcement triggering immediate settlement even if the effective date is later.[2]

Historically, markets on presidential departures tend to stay anchored in the low-probability tail until there is an explicit institutional trigger, because a sitting president resigning or being permanently removed is rare in modern US politics. The key comparable cases are not routine cabinet or staffing shifts, but formal resignation announcements and constitutional removal processes, which are much harder to price than day-to-day political turbulence. In practice, that means traders should read a 1% print as a statement that the market sees almost no evidence of an imminent exit, not as a precise forecast of the long-run risk.[2][8]

The near-term catalysts are procedural rather than economic: a resignation statement, a White House announcement about permanent departure, or a confirmed removal process would be the decisive event. Because the market resolves on an announcement, even a pre-announced future resignation would be enough to flip it immediately. Absent that, the main watchpoints are scheduled presidential remarks, any abrupt change to the public calendar, and credible reporting from major outlets that the White House is preparing a formal statement; recent coverage on prediction markets has shown that even modest headlines can move odds quickly when traders perceive an official announcement risk.[1][2][17]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Trump out as President by August 31? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.