Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, with commercial shipping suspended and vessel transits near zero against a normal baseline of roughly 60 daily arrivals. This blockade stems from ongoing conflict with Iran, which has imposed tolls, threatened mines, and disrupted a route carrying 20% of global oil and gas supplies. President Trump has explicitly tied any ceasefire with Tehran to the strait’s reopening, yet peace negotiations show minimal progress, prompting a declared naval blockade against Iran[2].

Historical precedents suggest volatility in such closures; the strait was briefly reopened on 21 April 2026 before closing again the following day, with only 14 vessels crossing on 8–9 April amid predominantly outbound movements[1][3]. Traders note that shipping traffic is unlikely to return to normal levels this year, a sentiment echoed by prediction-market participants who see current odds as diverging from sportsbook lines that often price geopolitical risk more conservatively[4]. The crowd-implied 59% YES probability appears optimistic compared to analyst consensus, which leans toward continued disruption given Tehran’s defensive posture.

Key catalysts include Trump’s next diplomatic announcement, any de-escalation in Iranian assaults, and the potential removal of mines or tolls. Recent NBC News monitoring confirms actual transit figures may be understated due to GPS alterations, but the prevailing trend remains a near-standstill[2]. Traders should watch for official IMF Portwatch data releases, as the market resolves only when a 7-day moving average of arrivals hits 60 or above, a threshold unlikely without a formal ceasefire or naval withdrawal.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.