Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The real-world event driving this market is the resignation of UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who stepped down after less than two years amid intense pressure from his own Labour Party, though he will remain as caretaker prime minister until a new leader is appointed. This announcement alone does not trigger resolution, as the market requires permanent removal from office, not a scheduled departure or interim caretaker status.

Historically, similar leadership transitions in the UK—such as the rapid succession of seven prime ministers in the last decade—have rarely resulted in permanent removal before an election, as caretaker leaders typically complete their term or win the next general election. Comparable cases like France’s Gabriel Attal, who remained caretaker without being deemed to have ceased office, reinforce that temporary roles do not count, making the 0% implied probability on “Next leader out of power before 2027” (No Orban) consistent with precedent where caretakers are not considered permanently removed.

Traders should monitor the Labour leadership contest starting July 9, particularly whether Andy Burnham secures the required 81 MP endorsements for an unopposed coronation, and whether any early general election is called before December 2026. A recent Sky News report notes that Starmer’s allies are being denied sensitive documents, hinting at internal fractures that could accelerate a leadership change, but only a confirmed election loss or forced resignation would qualify as permanent removal [9]. Until such an event occurs, the market will resolve to “None before 2027”.

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Methodology

We track Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban) on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.