Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying event is whether Israel and Hamas reach a **publicly announced mutual agreement** on the ceasefire’s second phase before the market’s end date. The prediction market is pricing that outcome at **65% YES**, which sits above the more cautious tone in much of the current commentary: Reuters and other wires have reported that phase-two talks remain contingent on unresolved issues such as Hamas disarmament, further Israeli withdrawal, and post-war governance arrangements, all of which have repeatedly delayed progress. [1][3][12]

That pricing makes more sense when set against earlier Gaza ceasefire episodes, where an initial truce or hostage exchange did not reliably convert into a durable second-stage settlement. In the 2025–26 framework, phase one was implemented, but the second phase slipped well beyond the timetable originally envisaged, and by mid-2026 negotiations were still described as stalled. In comparable peace-process markets, traders have often over-weighted the signalling value of announcements and under-weighted the number of dependency points needed for a formal written accord, which argues for comparing the 65% implied probability against any sportsbook line that may be shorter if it is discounting implementation risk rather than mere diplomatic talks. [1][4][5][7]

Catalysts to watch are any joint statement from Israel, Hamas, the US, Qatar or Egypt; publication of a negotiation schedule; and confirmation that phase-one obligations have been fully closed, because those have been treated as preconditions for moving to phase two. AP reported in December 2025 that Netanyahu said the second stage could begin soon once the final hostage remains were returned, illustrating how closely the timeline still depends on hostage-related sequencing and whether the parties can bridge the gap on security terms. [12][2][3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.