Will 2026 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Ships are currently failing to reach normal transit volumes through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil flows, with recent IMF PortWatch data showing no meaningful recovery in shipping activity despite the settlement window ending in June 2026[6]. The market’s 19% implied probability for a rebound aligns with the stark reality that over 30,000 vessels pass annually, yet daily oil transport has not surpassed the 20 million barrel threshold seen in 2022 due to ongoing regional conflict[4].

Historical precedents from similar chokepoint disruptions, such as Red Sea traffic flows affected by recent attacks, suggest that recovery is often delayed by GPS jamming and AIS spoofing, which force vessels to go dark and evade detection[2][5]. This divergence between the low prediction-market odds and the high volume of vessels historically expected frames the current probability as a cautious bet against a rapid return to normalcy, contrasting with more optimistic sportsbook lines that may underestimate the technical hurdles of data verification[1].

Traders must monitor upcoming IMF PortWatch updates, specifically the March 5th data revision and any new announcements regarding conflict de-escalation, as these are the primary catalysts for a volume spike[10]. The dependency on finalized daily numbers means that even if ships physically transit, the market will resolve to “No” if IMF Portwatch does not publish the data, a risk highlighted by the ongoing conflict reports of vessels avoiding the strait[2]. Analyst consensus remains bearish on a quick recovery, noting that the closure of the strait remains a persistent threat rather than a temporary glitch[6].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Will 2026 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.