Will 2026 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Ships routinely cross the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil flows, yet current data shows a dramatic collapse in vessel traffic following the onset of the Iran war. Over 30,000 vessels pass annually, with daily oil transport exceeding 20 million barrels in 2022, but recent IMF PortWatch figures indicate crossings have plummeted by more than 95% from pre-war averages of 75–125 ships per day[4][6]. This historical divergence frames the market’s 46% implied probability: while the strait remains open, the sheer volume of traffic required to trigger a “Yes” settlement is now an outlier compared to recent reality[6].

Traders must monitor geopolitical announcements and shipping schedules that could signal a rebound in transit calls, particularly given ongoing GPS jamming and AIS spoofing that obscure real-time vessel data[3]. The settlement relies on finalized daily numbers from IMF PortWatch, meaning any sudden policy shifts or de-escalation in the region could abruptly restore traffic flows[5]. Recent Kalshi data recorded 41 transit calls in a single week in March 2026, suggesting that while traffic is low, it is not zero, and a single high-volume week could breach the threshold[8]. Divergence between prediction-market odds and sportsbook lines on similar shipping contracts highlights uncertainty over whether current suppression is temporary or structural.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.