How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of July 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Strait of Hormuz is currently witnessing a volatile rebound in maritime traffic following a brief, war-induced closure, with 73 vessels recorded transiting on a single Wednesday in late June 2026, the highest daily count since the conflict with Iran escalated in February [3]. This surge represents more than double the volume seen just two days prior, signalling a fragile but active recovery despite ongoing geopolitical friction [3]. The 82% crowd-implied probability for a high transit count on Polymarket aligns closely with Kalshi’s sportsbook-style lines, which also favour a robust weekly total, though analyst consensus remains cautious about the sustainability of these flows given the recent halt in outbound commercial movements reported as late as June 23 [1].

Traders must monitor the status of the interim deal between the US and Iran, which reportedly resumed tanker traffic in mid-June after text was released [4], and watch for any re-escalation of military tensions that could trigger another closure. The settlement depends entirely on IMF Portwatch’s finalized data, which only counts container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships, excluding any unreported vessels [Market Description]. Recent reports indicate traffic remains active but recovery stays cautious, with a critical evacuation plan currently on hold that could disrupt the flow if geopolitical conditions worsen [2]. The divergence between the high implied probability and the zero verified outbound movements from late June suggests the market is betting on a rapid return to pre-crisis norms rather than a prolonged bottleneck [1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of July 6? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.