MLB: Runs Leader

Platform comparison

Market context

The contract resolves on which player accumulates the most runs during the 2026 Major League Baseball regular season, with a crowd-implied probability of 24% for the "YES" outcome. This metric differs from home runs, which are tracked separately in sportsbooks; the 24% figure suggests the market views the event as a moderate likelihood, yet it diverges notably from traditional futures where Aaron Judge holds a +350 implied probability of 22.2% for the home run title, a category often conflated by casual traders. Historical precedents show that run leaders frequently emerge from high-contact players like Shohei Ohtani or Bobby Witt Jr., rather than pure power hitters, framing the current 24% as potentially undervalued given the season's early pace where contact rates remain elevated.

Traders must monitor the All-Star break roster announcements and injury reports, as late-season slumps or benchings for rest can drastically alter run totals, a dependency highlighted by recent analyses of player performance trends. Kyle Schwarber currently leads the home run count with 20 as of late May, but his run accumulation depends on batting average and team offensive output, which fluctuates significantly after the break. Analyst consensus from THE BAT X projects Judge to hit 49 home runs, yet run leaders often require a higher on-base percentage, making Ohtani a critical catalyst to watch if his RBI projections of 116–119 align with run accumulation. The settlement window ending in September 2026 means traders should focus on August performance trends, where players prone to late-season injuries often fall out of contention, a risk factor that sportsbooks price differently than prediction markets.

The divergence between sportsbook lines, which favour power hitters for home run titles, and the prediction market's 24% probability for run leaders, suggests a mispricing opportunity for traders who understand the distinction between runs and home runs. While Judge is the favourite for home runs, run leaders like Ohtani or Witt Jr. offer value if their on-base percentages sustain, a nuance often missed in cross-platform odds comparisons. Recent projections indicate Ohtani could lead in RBIs with 119, closely trailing Judge, which implies his run total may be higher than the market currently prices, creating a potential arbitrage between the 24% implied probability and the 22.2% sportsbook implied probability for the home run title. Traders should weigh these projections against the official MLB tie-breaking rules, which prioritise on-base percentage and batting average, further supporting the value of contact-oriented players in this contract.

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Methodology

We track MLB: Runs Leader across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.