Iran charges Hormuz fees by 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

Iran is already moving money across the Strait of Hormuz, but the key market question is whether Tehran makes that charging system an official, general policy for commercial vessels before late August 2026. Bloomberg reported in March that Iran had started seeking transit payments of as much as $2 million per voyage on some ships, but on an ad hoc basis rather than through a systematic tariff, while Reuters later described Iran’s authority as waiving fees during a 60-day negotiation period after an earlier announcement that it would forgo charges temporarily.[1][12]

That history matters because this contract is stricter than a simple “does Iran charge anything?” bet. Reuters said Iran had been proposing fees framed as payment for navigation, security, safety and environmental services, and other coverage noted that under maritime law states bordering straits cannot charge purely for passage, only limited service fees.[13][15] That leaves room for ambiguity: a one-off demand or informal “safe passage” payment would not necessarily qualify, whereas a published scheme applying generally to commercial traffic would.[1][8]

The live catalysts are official announcements from Iran’s foreign ministry, the Strait of Hormuz authority, or the Supreme National Security Council, plus any tariff schedule, permit rules, or implementation notices that show collection has begun. Recent reporting also points to ongoing regional bargaining, including Oman’s proposal for voluntary fees and a Reuters report that Iran would waive charges during the negotiation window, which could keep the implied probability suppressed unless Tehran hardens its position again.[12][15] With the market at 0% YES, prediction-market pricing is notably more sceptical than the press narrative, which has repeatedly described de facto charges but not yet a clean, universally applicable fee regime.[1][8][13]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Iran charges Hormuz fees by 2026? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.