Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to commercial shipping as Iran and the United States continue their conflict, with the waterway briefly reopening for just one day in late April before shutting again. This strategic chokepoint, which normally handles roughly one-third of global oil transit and averages 120 vessel crossings daily, has seen traffic drop to near-standstill levels, prompting a 30% surge in US gas prices and a US naval blockade against Iran.

Historical precedents for such closures, including the 1980s Tanker War and the 2019 Gulf of Oman incidents, suggest that even when diplomatic agreements are signed, full traffic restoration often takes months rather than days. The current 14% implied probability on prediction markets aligns with analyst consensus that the June 30 deadline is unrealistic given the MOU’s requirement for Iran to restore pre-war traffic levels by July 19, while sportsbooks offer slightly higher odds (18–20%) reflecting uncertainty over whether the US will lift its blockade by the July 19 deadline as stipulated.

Traders should monitor the July 19 deadline for the US naval blockade lift, the 60-day toll-free window expiry, and any announcements regarding Iranian mine-laying or toll imposition. Recent reporting from CNN confirms that 25 commercial vessels traversed the strait on June 25, marking the highest volume since April, yet this remains far below the 60-transit threshold required for the market to resolve “Yes” [4]. The divergence between prediction-market odds and sportsbook lines underscores the market’s sensitivity to whether Iran can meet its “best efforts” obligation within the compressed timeframe.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.