Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

The question centres on whether military vessels from an unspecified nation will navigate the Strait of Hormuz—the world's most critical chokepoint for oil transit, linking the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman—between now and the end of July 2026. The 4% implied probability reflects a market view that such a transit is unlikely within this timeframe, though the Strait remains one of the most heavily trafficked waterways for naval operations globally.

Historical precedent suggests the current odds may underestimate baseline transit frequency. The United States Navy, Royal Navy, French Navy, and other allied forces conduct regular freedom-of-navigation operations through the Strait, with documented transits occurring multiple times annually. Between 2019 and 2024, documented warship passages by Western navies averaged roughly four to six per year, though reporting gaps and classification restrictions complicate precise tallies. The 4% figure implies either extreme confidence in a specific country's non-participation or reflects market participants pricing in a narrow definition of "warship" that excludes routine naval operations.

Traders should monitor announcements regarding naval deployments to the Middle East, particularly carrier strike group rotations and task force repositionings. The US Navy's Fifth Fleet maintains a permanent presence in Bahrain, making American transits near-certain over any 18-month window. Recent reporting from the US Naval Institute and regional maritime authorities documented routine passages throughout 2024 and early 2025. Any escalation in Iran-related tensions, Houthi activity in the Red Sea, or broader regional instability could accelerate deployment schedules. The settlement definition's reliance on "credible reporting" rather than official confirmation introduces interpretation risk, particularly for nations with less transparent military communications.

Methodology

We track Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.