Iran commits not to attack ships in Hormuz by Sunday?

Platform comparison

Market context

Iran has resumed striking commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, directly undermining recent diplomatic assurances and threatening to derail peace talks with the United States. Despite Oman reporting that Iran previously affirmed commitment to toll-free safe passage, a Thursday strike on a vessel has compromised escort operations and intensified tensions ahead of scheduled negotiations in Oman led by Vice President JD Vance[1][4].

Historical precedents show Iran frequently issues conditional transit permissions rather than blanket non-aggression pledges, often excluding US or Israeli-linked assets while charging fees for safe passage[2]. This pattern of ambiguous, transactional statements contrasts sharply with the market’s requirement for an unambiguous, declarative commitment not to attack any ship, making the current 2% implied probability on Polymarket consistent with the absence of such a definitive pledge in recent diplomatic exchanges[2][5].

Traders should monitor the outcome of the Oman talks this Saturday, where the US is explicitly demanding a public Iranian statement guaranteeing the strait is open and that commercial ships will not be targeted[4][9]. A failure to secure this specific pledge, or any further attacks on tankers as seen in recent weeks, will almost certainly resolve the market to No, given Iran’s reliance on Hormuz dominance as leverage rather than a willingness to relinquish it[5][9].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Iran commits not to attack ships in Hormuz by Sunday? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.