0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..?

Platform comparison

Market context

Zero daily transits through the Strait of Hormuz have occurred repeatedly during the 2026 US–Iran conflict, with WTO tracker data showing crude export voyages down 90% since the June 17 deal and zero activity on 10 of the last 19 days[1]. The strait was briefly reopened on 21 April before closing again the next day, with commercial shipping suspended and vessel movements near zero against a normal baseline of roughly 60 per day[5]. Despite a US–Iran memorandum guaranteeing immediate commercial navigation from 17 June, traffic has remained volatile, with 25 vessels crossing on 25 June—the highest since April—but no sustained daily zero recorded since the reopening[2][7]. This history frames the current 0% crowd-implied probability as plausible only if the agreement’s July 19 naval blockade lift and Iran’s “best efforts” clause fully restore flows without interruption.

Traders should monitor the 19 July deadline for the US to lift its naval blockade of Iranian ports, a prerequisite under the memorandum for Iran to restore pre-war traffic levels[2]. Any delay or reversal in blockade removal could trigger renewed closures, as seen in April when security incidents prompted Iran to reverse its reopening[9]. Recent reports note crude exports remain down 90% and that some tanker owners still navigate without AIS due to war-risk cover expirations and missile threats[1][3]. The key catalyst is whether IMF PortWatch’s daily “Arrivals of Ships” count hits zero after 19 July; if the blockade lift occurs and Iran complies, the likelihood of a zero-day drops sharply, aligning with the current 0% odds on prediction markets versus sportsbooks that may still price in geopolitical tail risk.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track 0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.