Will Hamas agree to disarm by 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hamas agreeing to publicly disarm in Gaza would be a major departure from its current position, and the market’s 0% YES price sits well below the broad policy backdrop. Reuters reported in April that Hamas told mediators it would not even discuss disarmament without assurances of a full Israeli withdrawal, while other outlets have since described the group as rejecting phased disarmament unless wider political conditions are met, including movement on statehood or the next phase of a ceasefire deal.[1][2][7][11]

That makes the contract look like a long-shot unless there is a formal bargain linking weapons handover to troop withdrawal and governance changes. Comparable frameworks have still not produced a clean commitment: AP said a U.S.-backed proposal envisaged complete decommissioning of Hamas weapons, starting with heavy weapons, but the same reporting underlined that this remained part of negotiations rather than an accepted Hamas announcement.[5] In other words, the market is effectively pricing the gap between an external disarmament design and Hamas’s own public stance, which remains the key historical comparison for reading the odds.[4][8][12]

For traders, the main catalysts are any Hamas statement through its recognised leadership, fresh mediator drafts from Egypt, Qatar, or Turkey, and whether talks over Israeli withdrawal, humanitarian access, or transitional governance unlock a broader deal. Reuters’ April report and later coverage from June both point to Hamas tying disarmament to withdrawal guarantees, while AP’s reporting suggests discussions have continued but without any confirmed acceptance.[1][3][5] On a cross-platform basis, prediction-market pricing at 0% implies near-total scepticism; unless sportsbook pricing is materially higher, that would usually signal consensus rather than a genuine divergence.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.