Türkiye vs. United States

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The upcoming FIFA World Cup Group D clash between Türkiye and the United States, held on Thursday, 25 June 2026 at Los Angeles Stadium, has already concluded with a dramatic 3–2 victory for Türkiye, sealed by Kaan Ayhan’s final-kick goal[1]. This result marks Türkiye’s sole win in the tournament so far and represents their first-ever World Cup meeting with the USA, despite four prior encounters in international competition dating back to 1991[2][3]. The prediction market’s current 0% implied probability for a US win now aligns precisely with the settled outcome, creating a stark divergence from pre-match sportsbook lines that had favoured the Americans based on their 2–1–1 historical record against Turkey[2][5].

Historically, US dominance in this fixture has been inconsistent; while they won the last two matches before this tournament, their only loss occurred in the 2003 FIFA Confederations Cup, a tournament disbanded in 2017[2]. Türkiye’s World Cup pedigree remains modest, having qualified only three times, with their highest finish being third in 2002[7][8]. This context explains why analyst consensus had been cautious about US superiority despite their recent head-to-head wins, as Türkiye’s tournament performance in 2026 has exceeded expectations, culminating in this decisive Group D victory[1][9].

Traders should monitor post-match squad announcements and injury reports from both nations, as these will influence future World Cup fixtures and transfer market valuations. The US Soccer official website recently highlighted key players like Brenden Aaronson and Patrick Agyemang, whose fitness levels remain critical for upcoming matches[2]. With the settlement window ending on 26 June 2026, all market activity now reflects the confirmed result, rendering further odds comparisons between Polymarket and Kalshi moot for this specific contract.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.