Egypt vs. IR Iran

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The upcoming FIFA World Cup Group G match between Egypt and IR Iran takes place on Friday, 26 June 2026 at Seattle Stadium, with both nations needing a win to advance. This decisive fixture carries a current crowd-implied probability of 25% for an Egyptian victory, a figure that diverges meaningfully from sportsbook lines where Egypt is priced at +143 to win, suggesting a roughly 41% chance, while analysts note the prediction market is underweighting Egypt’s recent form compared to the consensus on team strength[3][5].

Historically, World Cup knockout or decisive group matches between nations with similar defensive records and low goal averages have often settled as tight, low-scoring contests where a single goal decides the outcome, framing the current 25% probability as potentially conservative given Egypt’s attacking trio of Salah, Ziko, and Trézéguet[4]. Comparable cases from recent World Cups show that when two teams with identical win-loss records face off in a must-win scenario, the home or neutral venue advantage often tilts the odds closer to the sportsbook implied probability rather than the lower prediction-market figure, indicating a potential arbitrage opportunity for traders monitoring the divergence[7].

Traders should watch for final line-up announcements and any pre-match statements regarding the permitted display of rainbow flags, as FIFA has confirmed fans may carry them despite objections from both national federations, creating a complex cultural backdrop that could influence player focus or crowd dynamics[1][2]. The match kicks off at 8 p.m. PT, with live coverage on FOX, and any late changes to the starting XI or referee decisions by Szymon Marciniak could shift the implied probability significantly before the settlement window closes on 27 June 2026[4][6].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Egypt vs. IR Iran across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.