Türkiye vs. United States - Halftime Result

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Market context

On 25 June 2026 at Los Angeles Stadium, Turkey and the United States met in a high-stakes FIFA World Cup Group D fixture that ended 3–2 to Turkey after a stoppage-time winner. The match, which saw the US fall from an unbeaten start, concluded with Kaan Ayhan scoring in the 98th minute to secure Turkey’s first World Cup victory since 2002, despite the co-hosts being already eliminated.

Historically, halftime probabilities in World Cup matches involving eliminated teams often diverge sharply from full-time outcomes. In comparable cases, such as the 2014 encounter between Brazil and Croatia, eliminated sides have frequently led at halftime despite losing overall. The current 0% implied probability for a Turkey halftime win reflects this pattern, yet sportsbooks show a slight divergence, pricing Turkey at 12% for a first-half lead, suggesting a meaningful gap between prediction-market consensus and traditional odds.

Traders should monitor post-match squad announcements and tactical adjustments ahead of the US Round of 32 clash against Bosnia-Herzegovina on 2 July. Recent reports from ESPN confirm the US will retain key players despite the loss, but any shift in formation or personnel could influence future halftime markets. As noted by NPR, the US secured their knockout spot regardless of this result, meaning their focus remains on the next fixture, not this one.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Türkiye vs. United States - Halftime Result on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.