Türkiye vs. United States - Exact Score

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 25 June 2026, the Türkiye versus United States FIFA World Cup match concluded with a 3–2 victory for Türkiye, a result that settled the “Exact Score” prediction market as “Any Other Score” since the listed outcomes did not include this final tally. The game, played at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles, saw Kaan Ayhan score the decisive goal in the final seconds, ending the USMNT’s perfect group-stage run despite their prior advancement as group winners [1][3].

Historically, the two nations have met only four times since 1991, with the USMNT holding a 2–1–1 record and winning their last two encounters before this loss [2]. This 3–2 result mirrors high-scoring World Cup clashes where late goals overturned expectations, such as Nigeria’s 2014 win over Argentina, reinforcing how volatile exact-score markets can be when matches feature multiple lead changes and stoppage-time drama [1].

Traders should monitor post-match squad announcements and FIFA’s official round-of-32 schedule, as the USMNT’s progression despite the loss may affect future betting lines. ESPN confirmed the final score and noted Türkiye’s elimination from the tournament, while US Soccer highlighted the match’s academic nature given both teams’ prior standings [1][2]. With the settlement window closing on 26 June 2026 at 02:00 UTC, the market’s 0% implied probability for any listed exact score aligns with the actual outcome, underscoring the divergence between pre-match odds and live results [5].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Türkiye vs. United States - Exact Score on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.