Fed rate hike by 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event at the heart of this contract is whether the Federal Reserve will raise the upper bound of its target federal funds rate between December 2025 and late 2026. Current crowd-implied probability sits at 0% for a “Yes”, reflecting overwhelming market consensus that the Fed is in a cutting, not hiking, cycle. This aligns with live data from the CME FedWatch tool, which shows an 84.8% probability of a 25-basis-point cut at the December 10, 2025 FOMC meeting, and a trajectory of three cuts in 2025 and 100–125 basis points of easing in 2026[1].

Historically, rate hikes during a cutting phase are exceptionally rare and typically triggered only by emergency inflation spikes or financial instability. The last sustained hiking cycle ended in 2007, and no Fed chair has raised rates while simultaneously cutting them in the same year. Analysts note that even with high division among Fed officials—some warning of inflation stability, others dovish—the bond market still prices a cut at 87%[3]. This divergence between analyst caution and market certainty underscores why a hike is viewed as near-impossible.

Traders should monitor the January 27–28 FOMC meeting, where economists expect rates to hold steady, and any surprise inflation data that could shift the March outlook[5]. The CME FedWatch tool remains the primary resolution source, updating live probabilities based on futures pricing[9]. With the Fed already lowering rates by 75 basis points in 2025 and projecting further cuts into 2026, the catalysts for a hike are absent, making the 0% implied probability a rational reflection of policy direction[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Fed rate hike by 2026? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.