Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)

Platform comparison

Market context

The Federal Reserve is expected to hold interest rates steady at its upcoming July and September 2026 meetings, with the current 0% crowd-implied probability for a rate cut reflecting a sharp pivot in official policy. Following the June FOMC meeting under new Chair Kevin Warsh, nine of eighteen committee members now project at least one rate hike before year-end, a complete reversal from March projections that anticipated cuts [6]. Short-term futures now price a roughly 70% chance of a September hike, driven by inflation remaining above the 2% target and renewed Middle East tensions escalating borrowing-cost worries [3][4].

Historically, such a dot-plot flip from cuts to hikes has preceded sustained tightening cycles; the June decision mirrors the hawkish surprise of 2022 when officials abandoned easing forecasts amid persistent inflation [6]. With the federal funds rate holding at 3.50%–3.75% since December 2025, the median year-end projection has climbed to 3.8%, implying a 25-basis-point increase is very likely [5]. This contrasts with the 0% cut probability on this contract, while Polymarket’s separate September cut market shows 51% odds for a reduction, highlighting a meaningful divergence between platforms on the same event [11].

Traders should monitor the July 28–29 FOMC minutes and the September 15–16 meeting for confirmation of the hike trajectory, alongside inflation data and Iran-conflict developments that could alter the timeline [4]. The CME FedWatch tool now shows an 853% surge in hike odds since December, with the probability of a September increase reaching 68.8% by mid-July [4]. Any deviation from the 3.50%–3.75% range would resolve this market, but current analyst consensus and derivatives pricing strongly favour a hike rather than a cut by September [2][3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Fed decisions (Jun-Sep) across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.