Fed decisions (Jul–Oct)

Platform comparison

Market context

The Federal Reserve will hold three policy meetings between late July and late October 2026, with the FOMC setting the upper bound of the target federal funds rate at each session. This market resolves YES if at least one rate cut occurs across those three meetings; the 0% crowd probability suggests traders currently assign negligible odds to any reduction in the 5.25–5.50% range that has prevailed since mid-2023. The settlement window closes 28 October, immediately after the final FOMC decision on 27–28 October.

Rate-cut expectations have shifted markedly since mid-2024, when futures markets priced in four or five cuts by year-end 2025. The Fed's subsequent hawkish pivot—driven by sticky inflation and robust labour-market data—eliminated those cuts entirely. Historical precedent shows the FOMC rarely reverses course within a three-month window absent a financial shock or sharp economic deterioration. The last unscheduled emergency cut came in March 2020; routine policy reversals typically require multiple meetings of consistent economic signals pointing toward recession or deflation.

Traders should monitor June and July inflation releases, employment reports, and any Fed communications signalling a shift in the inflation outlook. The 0% probability reflects consensus that near-term rate cuts remain off the table, though this assumes no material economic surprise between now and late October. Sportsbook-style odds are not widely quoted for Fed decisions, but options markets on fed-funds futures currently price minimal probability of cuts in this window, aligning with the prediction-market reading.

Methodology

We track Fed decisions (Jul–Oct) across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.