Fed decisions (Apr-Jul)

Platform comparison

Market context

The Federal Open Market Committee is set to decide on the upper bound of the target federal funds rate across three meetings between late April and late July 2026, with the current range fixed at 3.50%–3.75%. The market’s 0% implied probability for a rate cut reflects a consensus that inflation pressures and a resilient labour market will keep policymakers on hold, despite earlier bets on easing.

Historically, the Fed has maintained rates unchanged for extended periods when inflation remains above target but economic growth is stable, as seen in the 1990s and the post-2015 cycle. In those cases, the upper bound held steady until a clear deterioration in employment or a sustained drop in core inflation triggered a shift. The current 0% cut probability aligns with this pattern, suggesting traders view the 3.75% upper bound as a floor rather than a ceiling for the next quarter.

Traders should monitor the April 29 and June 17 FOMC statements, particularly any shifts in language regarding inflation outlook or employment risks, alongside the May and June CPI releases. According to Fidelity, rising inflationary pressures have already prompted investors to increase bets on a potential hike before year-end, though derivatives markets still show a nearly 60% chance of at least one rate increase by December [2]. The July 28–29 meeting will be the final catalyst before the settlement window closes on 29 July 2026.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.