LoL: T1 vs DN SOOPers (BO1) - KeSPA Cup Group Stage

Platform comparison

Market context

T1 face DN SOOPers in a KeSPA Cup group-stage best-of-one, and the market’s **86%** crowd-implied probability for T1 is closely aligned with broader fan sentiment. Strafe’s match page shows users backing T1 at **85.7%**, which suggests the contract is trading in line with consensus rather than at a large premium or discount.[2]

That level of support is consistent with how comparable T1 match-ups have been framed: preview coverage has described T1 as the clear favourite, and one recent match report noted a prior **2-0** result against DN SOOPers as evidence of a favourable head-to-head.[1] In a single-game format, though, the key distinction is that a strong favourite still carries meaningful upset risk, so a price in the mid-80s implies the market is discounting DN SOOPers as a live underdog but not treating the outcome as close to certain.[1][2]

For traders, the main catalysts are confirmation that the fixture is played on schedule and any roster or bracket news before the settlement window closes. KeSPA Cup match pages and preview pieces indicate the game was slated for the morning of 27 July, but in esports these contracts can hinge on late schedule shifts, walkovers, or administrative changes that affect whether a result is official; if the match were not completed normally, the market rules point to a non-standard settlement outcome.[1]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

We track LoL: T1 vs DN SOOPers (BO1) - KeSPA Cup Group Stage across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.