Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
56% | 44% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
56% | 44% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Game 2 Winner | 56% |
| Match Winner | 56% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 56% |
| Game 1 Winner | 55% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 54% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 53% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2? | 53% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1? | 53% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 52% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 52% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2? | 52% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 51% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 51% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? | 50% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 49% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 49% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 48% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 48% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 48% |
| Game Handicap: AL (-1.5) vs JD Gaming (+1.5) | 32% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 25% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 25% |
Market context
Market consensus: 56% chance of lol: anyone's legend vs jd gaming (bo3) - lpl group ascend. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the LoL match between Anyone's Legend and JD Gaming in the LPL Group Ascend, initially scheduled for August 14 at 7:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Any…
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
Trade LoL: Anyone's Legend vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group … on PolyGram
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
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