Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Execration (BO3) - Games of the Future Group A

Platform comparison

Market context

Yellow Submarine and Execration are scheduled to meet in a best-of-three at Games of the Future Group A, with listed start times clustering around 05:00–08:00 UTC on 31 July, so the contract is fundamentally a single-match outcome bet rather than a long-run team-rating play.[1][14][18] The current crowd-implied probability of **100% YES** is extreme when set against cross-platform pricing: a sportsbook line in Leon’s preview implies something closer to a 59% chance for Yellow Submarine at 1.7 decimal odds, while Robinhood’s market shows a much tighter split at 54¢ to 46¢.[13][17] That gap suggests either stale or mis-synchronised pricing somewhere in the chain, because the external market data do not point to a universally one-sided view.[13][17]

For historical context, the most useful comparison is with short-form esports group-stage matches where the market can briefly overshoot before linemakers and news feeds update around roster confirmations, map results, or schedule changes. Liquipedia still shows Group A as TBD-heavy, while live score services and match trackers have already listed the fixture and, in some cases, reported live or finished states, which is exactly the kind of uneven information flow that can distort a prediction contract near settlement.[1][11][19] Traders should watch for official bracket updates, any late start-time revisions, and whether organisers confirm the match actually goes ahead as scheduled, because cancellation, postponement beyond seven days, or an incomplete BO3 would affect resolution under the contract rules.[14][18][19]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.