Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Game 1 Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Ends in Daytime | 100% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 100% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 100% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 100% |
| Any Player Rampage | 100% |
| Ends in Daytime | 100% |
| Game 2 Winner | 0% |
| Match Winner | 0% |
| Game Handicap: PckCp (-1.5) vs Team Syntax (+1.5) | 0% |
| Ends in Daytime | 0% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 0% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 0% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 0% |
| Any Player Rampage | 0% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 0% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 0% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 0% |
| Any Player Rampage | 0% |
Market context
PuckChamp’s EPL Masters Play-In Group A match against Team Syntax has already been played, and the reported result was a 2–0 win for PuckChamp.[1] That makes the contract’s current **100% YES** crowd-implied price broadly consistent with the settled-looking on-the-ground outcome rather than a live pre-match forecast, while cross-platform fan sentiment was less one-sided: Strafe users had PuckChamp at **78%** and Team Syntax at **22%** before the series began.[9]
For historical context, Dota 2 best-of-three markets often move sharply once credible preview sites, community votes, and bookmaker-style odds line up around one side, but they can diverge when team identity is thin or roster information is incomplete. In this case, external match pages showed the series as live and then final at 0–2 from the Team Syntax side / 2–0 from the PuckChamp side depending on scoreboard orientation, which is the kind of completed-series evidence that usually overwhelms any pre-match uncertainty.[1][3] A recent odds-style page also listed Team Syntax around 2.21, implying a competitive but clear underdog position rather than a coin flip.[6]
The main catalysts for traders here are scheduling confirmation, whether the series actually starts on time, and whether any late roster or forfeiture news appears before the settlement window closes. Because the market rules treat cancellation, a tie, or a delay beyond seven days as a 50–50 outcome, the practical risk is not in model disagreement but in event integrity and official completion status; if match pages and tournament coverage remain aligned that a full BO3 was played, the contract should stay anchored to the reported winner.[1][3][8]
Methodology
We track Dota 2: PuckChamp vs Team Syntax (BO3) - EPL Masters Play-In Group A across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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