Dota 2: Aurora vs GamerLegion (BO3) - The International Group Stage

Platform comparison

Market context

Aurora and GamerLegion are scheduled to contest a best-of-three Dota 2 match during The International Group Stage on 13 August at 1:00 AM ET. The 100% implied probability across prediction markets reflects near-certainty that the match will occur as scheduled, though settlement hinges on completion within the seven-day window and a decisive outcome. The match forms part of the group stage format, where teams compete for seeding advantages ahead of the main event bracket.

Historical precedent from prior International tournaments shows group-stage matches rarely face cancellation or extended delays beyond the settlement window, particularly when both teams have travelled to the host venue. However, technical issues during broadcast—server crashes, client failures—have occasionally forced replays or forfeit rulings that triggered alternative settlement clauses. The current 100% probability suggests traders are pricing in minimal risk of either team withdrawing or the match extending unresolved beyond the deadline.

Cross-platform odds comparison reveals limited divergence: sportsbooks offering Dota 2 betting typically shade Aurora or GamerLegion based on recent LAN performance and roster stability, yet prediction markets show no meaningful spread between the two outcomes at the contract level. Traders should monitor official International schedule announcements and team roster confirmations in the 48 hours before the match, as last-minute substitutions or venue logistics changes have occasionally triggered delays in prior years. Valve's official Dota 2 esports channels and team social media remain the primary sources for schedule updates or disruption notices.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.