Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Inner Circle Academy (-3.5) vs ex-Sashi Academy (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Inner Circle Academy (-6.5) vs ex-Sashi Academy (+6.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Winner | 0% |
| Match Winner | 0% |
| Map Handicap: IC.A (-1.5) vs ex-Sashi Academy (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Inner Circle Academy (-3.5) vs ex-Sashi Academy (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Inner Circle Academy (-3.5) vs ex-Sashi Academy (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Inner Circle Academy (-6.5) vs ex-Sashi Academy (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Inner Circle Academy (-6.5) vs ex-Sashi Academy (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
Market context
Inner Circle Academy face ex-Sashi Academy in a best-of-three Counter-Strike match within the CCT Europe Closed Qualifier Series #7, Group D stage. The fixture is scheduled for 14 August at 10:00 AM ET, with settlement occurring at 20:15 UTC the same day. The 100% implied probability across prediction markets suggests near-certainty regarding match completion, though this reflects confidence in the event occurring rather than a decisive skill differential between the sides.
CCT Europe qualifiers historically feature academy and developmental rosters with volatile performance patterns. Ex-Sashi Academy, operating under the Sashi banner's secondary structure, typically fields players with prior tier-two experience, whilst Inner Circle Academy represents a newer competitive entity. Comparable academy-level matchups in CCT Europe have shown that implied probabilities approaching 100% often reflect scheduling certainty rather than competitive dominance—cancellations remain rare at this stage, but roster changes and player availability issues have occasionally disrupted fixtures within the seven-day window. The current probability alignment across sportsbooks and prediction markets suggests minimal disagreement on match likelihood.
Traders should monitor official CCT Europe announcements for roster confirmations, particularly regarding any last-minute substitutions or visa complications affecting either side. Scheduling dependencies matter considerably; the Group D format determines advancement implications, potentially affecting team preparation intensity. Recent CCT Europe communications have emphasised fixture adherence following earlier series delays, suggesting institutional pressure to maintain the 14 August date. Any announcement of player unavailability or format changes would materially shift settlement risk before the 20:15 UTC deadline.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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