Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
55% | 45% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
55% | 45% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Match Winner | 55% |
| Map 1 Winner | 54% |
| Map 2 Winner | 54% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 52% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 47% |
| Map Handicap: EYE (-1.5) vs Phantom (+1.5) | 34% |
Market context
EYEBALLERS play Phantom in a best-of-three winners match in Esports World Cup Open Qualifier Group 10, with the market currently pricing EYEBALLERS at 54% on the crowd-implied side. That is only a slim edge, and it sits between the stronger tournament-facing cues and the more even broad-market read: Polymarket’s CS2 board shows this contract around 1.61x2.08, which implies a modest EYEBALLERS lean, while a separate prediction venue is effectively split at 50-50 and lists the match with identical-looking market balance. [9][8]
The historical frame is mixed but useful: EYEBALLERS have recently taken a clear loss to FaZe, while Phantom’s recent form line includes a 0-2 defeat to Sashi and a 2-0 win over Lavked, suggesting neither side arrives with a dominant momentum profile. Live fixture pages also place both teams in the same open-qualifier window and indicate the series is scheduled as a BO3 in Group 10, which matters because any short-format variance or scheduling disruption can move a market like this sharply if the match is delayed, cancelled, or rescheduled beyond the settlement rules. [1][15][7]
For traders, the main catalysts are simple and immediate: whether the match starts on time, whether the tournament bracket keeps these teams in the stated Group 10 winners path, and whether any late withdrawal or administrative change affects the fixture. Multiple score and fixture listings still show the game as upcoming around the expected morning slot, but one source also shows a later local time, so confirmation from the organiser’s bracket or live scoreboard is the key cross-check before settlement risk rises. [1][2][5]
Methodology
This page reviews Counter-Strike: EYEBALLERS vs Phantom (BO3) - Esports World Cup Open Qualifier Group 10 across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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