Trump out as President before 2027?

Platform comparison

Market context

Donald Trump faces a 9% crowd-implied probability of resigning or being removed from the US presidency before the end of 2026, a figure that diverges sharply from broader Kalshi estimates on his impeachment risk. While this specific contract for permanent removal sits low, Kalshi traders currently price a 64.1% chance that he will face impeachment proceedings during his current term, with the probability of actual removal rising to nearly 28.7% in recent weeks[1][3]. This gap highlights how prediction markets distinguish between the procedural act of impeachment and the constitutional hurdle of conviction, where Senate Republican support historically shields presidents from permanent removal[2].

Historically, US presidents have rarely been removed via conviction, as seen in the 2025 House vote to table an impeachment resolution against Trump after it was forced by Rep. Al Green[8]. The 25th Amendment remains a theoretical catalyst for temporary removal, yet permanent exit requires either a Senate conviction or a voluntary resignation, both of which face significant political inertia[2]. Traders should monitor the House impeachment inquiry launched by Democrats, as conviction remains unlikely unless Republican Senate support fractures[2]. Recent calls from figures like Governor Phil Scott for Trump to resign or be removed by his Cabinet add a volatile political layer, though no formal mechanism has yet triggered[6]. The settlement window closing on 31 December 2026 means any announcement of resignation or removal before that date resolves the market to "Yes" immediately, regardless of when the effect takes place.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.