What price will Bitcoin hit on June 29?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event is the closing of Bitcoin’s price on 29 June 2026, which determines settlement for contracts betting on its exact value. Today, at 3 PM UTC, Bitcoin trades near $72,500–$74,000 in a consolidating range after prior volatility, with no confirmed breakout above $73,800–$74,000 yet [5].

Historically, similar June 2026 forecasts show wide divergence: CoinCodex predicts $60,713 by 29 June, while 3Commas suggests $57,438, and Binance’s midpoint sits near $86,895 [1][2][4]. Analyst consensus leans bearish short-term, with 29 technical indicators signaling sell versus only 3 bullish [1]. This contrasts sharply with the 0% YES implied probability on the prediction market, suggesting traders expect a price far below $60,000 or a settlement failure, despite current spot prices well above that level.

Key catalysts include the weekly Bitcoin ETF flow data, which rose 1.11% today, and upcoming US macroeconomic releases that could shift risk appetite [7]. Traders should monitor whether Bitcoin reclaims and holds above $73,800–$74,000, as failure here may deepen support toward $68,300 [5]. Any sudden drop in buyer confidence could push prices into the $40,000–$60,000 range, aligning with the market’s current 0% odds [5].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track What price will Bitcoin hit on June 29? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.