What price will Bitcoin hit August 10-16?

Platform comparison

Market context

Bitcoin's price action during the week of 10–16 August 2026 will determine settlement of this contract. The current 0% implied probability across prediction markets suggests traders assess the specified price level as either extremely unlikely or already priced into existing positions, creating a notable disconnect from typical volatility expectations during summer trading windows when institutional positioning often shifts.

Historical precedent shows Bitcoin's weekly trading ranges have compressed during low-volume summer periods, yet August 2024 saw a 15% intraweek swing following US inflation data releases. The 0% reading here mirrors conditions seen in late 2023 when specific price-band contracts attracted minimal liquidity despite underlying asset volatility; such extreme probabilities often reflect sparse order flow rather than genuine consensus. Kalshi's crypto offerings have historically shown tighter spreads on directional contracts than on narrow price-band settlements, suggesting traders may be avoiding this particular range entirely rather than actively shorting it.

Traders monitoring this contract should track Federal Reserve communications scheduled for early August and any major cryptocurrency exchange announcements regarding custody or regulatory changes. Bitcoin's correlation to equity futures and the US dollar index typically strengthens during data-heavy weeks. The settlement window's placement just after mid-August positions it to capture any volatility from US employment reports or central bank signalling, though current market pricing suggests participants expect price movement either well above or below the specified band rather than within it.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.