Total commitments for the Credible public sale on MetaDAO

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying event is whether Credible Finance surpasses its fundraising threshold on MetaDAO before the August 2026 deadline. The project has already secured $2.315m in soft institutional commits against a minimum goal of $2m, with a maximum cap of $4m, making the 99% YES implied probability on Polymarket a reflection of near-certain execution rather than speculative optimism [2][7].

Historical precedents in MetaDAO’s curated raises suggest high success rates when soft commits exceed the minimum threshold early. MetaDAO’s October 2025 a’s raise attracted $155m in committed capital, while the platform has cumulatively raised over $40.9m across projects, indicating robust investor demand for curated DeFi opportunities [3][4]. This track record frames the current 99% odds as grounded in verifiable demand rather than market hype.

Traders should monitor the official Credible sale page for the real-time “committed” figure, as the market resolves on this metric regardless of later refunds [2]. Key catalysts include any announcements regarding the raise timeline or institutional additions, particularly given Paradigm’s recent $5.9m token acquisition in MetaDAO, which signals sustained institutional confidence in the ecosystem [10]. The Coinbase listing that boosted META prices by 27% further underscores the platform’s growing liquidity and credibility [9].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Total commitments for the Credible public sale on MetaDAO across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.