Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 (H.R.3633) passed the House with bipartisan support in July 2025 but remains stalled in the Senate Banking Committee, where a competing discussion draft of the Responsible Financial Innovation Act has emerged [3]. With the 41% YES implied probability on prediction markets, traders are pricing in significant legislative friction ahead of the December 2026 signing deadline, a timeline that now feels compressed given the current lack of Senate action.

Historically, US crypto market-structure bills face prolonged Senate deliberation even after House passage, as seen with the delayed finalisation of the GENIUS Act despite its rapid House adoption [3]. Comparable state-level efforts, such as California’s Digital Financial Assets Law, required years of drafting and committee votes before enactment, suggesting that a federal bill navigating two chambers and a presidential signature by end-2026 is an ambitious target [1]. This precedent tempers the optimism reflected in sportsbook lines that may be more aggressive than the cautious 41% crowd-implied probability.

Key catalysts include the Senate Banking Committee’s decision to advance H.R.3633 over its own RFIA draft, any scheduled hearings before late 2025, and the White House’s stance on crypto regulation as the 2026 legislative calendar tightens [2]. Recent reporting notes the Act’s explicit exclusion of stablecoins and securities, which could narrow its appeal if industry groups push for broader coverage [3]. Traders should monitor Congress.gov for committee votes and floor schedules, as a failure to pass both chambers before December 2026 will resolve the market to NO.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4

Methodology

We track Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.