Bitcoin Up or Down on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Bitcoin's intraday price movement between noon ET on 10 August and noon ET on 11 August 2026 will determine this market's outcome. The contract measures a precise 24-hour window using Binance's 1-minute candle closes, making it sensitive to both macroeconomic events and microstructure dynamics within that narrow timeframe. Current crowd pricing at 28% for an upward move reflects modest bearish lean, though the settlement window extends to 16:00 UTC on 11 August, allowing for post-noon volatility to influence final positioning.

Short-term Bitcoin directional markets typically trade at tighter implied probabilities than longer-dated contracts, as intraday noise and technical positioning create higher variance. Historical 24-hour Bitcoin moves of 2–4% occur regularly; the current 28% YES probability suggests traders expect a downward bias or neutral-to-negative lean for that specific window. Comparable intraday crypto markets on Polymarket and Kalshi have shown meaningful divergence when major economic data (US inflation prints, Fed commentary) falls within settlement windows, though no scheduled releases currently align with 10–11 August 2026.

Traders should monitor macroeconomic calendars for any surprise announcements in the preceding week, as Bitcoin often reprices ahead of US economic data. Spot-futures basis on Binance and open interest shifts in the days leading up to 10 August may signal institutional positioning. The 28% probability sits notably below the 50% midpoint, suggesting the market has priced in either technical resistance or a mild risk-off environment for that period.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.