July Inflation US - Monthly

Platform comparison

Market context

The US Consumer Price Index for July 2026 will be released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on 12 August 2026 at 8:30 AM ET. This market tracks the one-month seasonally adjusted percentage change in the CPI-U, the broadest measure of consumer inflation across urban households. The 0% implied probability reflects either extreme confidence in a specific outcome or minimal trading activity; neither Kalshi nor Polymarket shows meaningful volume on this contract at present, making the crowd signal unreliable as a consensus measure.

Monthly CPI changes have historically clustered between −0.1% and +0.4% in the post-pandemic normalisation period. July readings specifically tend toward seasonal moderation after summer demand patterns, though energy price volatility and supply-chain disruptions can override typical patterns. The June 2026 monthly print will serve as the immediate reference point; if that figure lands above 0.3%, traders should expect downward pressure on July expectations given mean-reversion dynamics in monthly inflation data.

Key dependencies include energy markets through early August, wage growth signals from July employment data (released 1 August), and any commodity price shocks in the weeks before the CPI release. The Federal Reserve's policy stance heading into late summer may also influence market positioning, particularly if rate-cut expectations shift materially. Cross-platform comparison data remains sparse; neither major prediction market has published odds that diverge meaningfully from the current 0% reading, suggesting this contract lacks sufficient liquidity to generate reliable arbitrage signals.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.