Claude Mythos 5 access restored by…?

Platform comparison

Market context

In April 2026, Anthropic suspended global access to its cybersecurity model, Claude Mythos 5, following a US government export control directive, only to receive approval for a narrowed exemption by late June that permitted redeployment to vetted US organisations protecting critical infrastructure. This sequence mirrors the rapid reversal seen with the general-use variant, Claude Fable 5, which was fully restored to all customers on 1 July after the Commerce Department issued a restricted directive, confirming that the underlying suspension was a temporary compliance measure rather than a permanent ban on the technology [1][2][3].

Current crowd-implied probability sits at 0% despite official confirmation that access for a set of US organisations was restored on 26 June, creating a stark divergence between the prediction market’s pessimism and the analyst consensus that full reinstatement is imminent [1][2]. Traders should monitor announcements regarding the expansion of the Project Glasswing programme beyond the initial cohort, as well as updates on access restoration for AWS Bedrock, Google Cloud Vertex AI, and Microsoft Foundry, which are explicitly cited as being rolled out [1][5]. The settlement window ending 30 June 2026 remains distant relative to the current July timeline, suggesting the market may be mispricing a contract that has effectively already resolved in favour of the "Yes" outcome for the initial qualifying group [1][6].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.