Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying event is SpaceX’s planned initial public offering in 2026, with a confidential filing confirmed and a targeted valuation between $1.75 trillion and $2 trillion. The market currently assigns an 86% probability to SpaceX becoming the largest IPO by market cap in 2026, with Anthropic trailing at 13% [1]. This reflects strong crowd consensus that SpaceX’s scale dwarfs all competitors, making a “No SpaceX” outcome the only credible contrarian position [2].

Historically, no IPO has approached SpaceX’s projected size. Saudi Aramco’s 2019 listing raised $25.6 billion at a valuation far below SpaceX’s, while Alibaba’s 2014 IPO raised $21.8 billion [3]. Even the largest tech IPOs in recent decades fall short of SpaceX’s anticipated $1.77 trillion valuation, which would make it the largest IPO in history by market cap [5]. This historical gap frames the current 86% probability as well-supported rather than speculative.

Traders should monitor official listing announcements, Nasdaq filing updates, and any delays in the reported June 2026 timeline. Recent reports confirm SpaceX’s June listing target and $75 billion raise, but shifts in regulatory approval or market conditions could alter the schedule [2]. With OpenAI and Anthropic also eyeing public listings, their valuation updates and filing dates will be key catalysts to watch, though neither currently matches SpaceX’s scale [4].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.