How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying event is whether the Federal Reserve will deliver at least one 25-basis-point rate cut in 2026, with the crowd-implied probability sitting at 80% for “Yes”. This market counts every 25 bps reduction, including emergency cuts outside scheduled meetings, and resolves early to “No” if the target becomes unachievable before year-end.

Historically, Fed cutting cycles have been sparse and data-dependent; in the post-2008 era, the Fed cut rates only during the 2019–2020 downturn and the 2023–2024 pause, often waiting for clear inflation or employment signals. Current pricing diverges sharply from major bank forecasts: TD Securities expects three cuts in March, June and September 2026 [2], while J.P. Morgan sees no cuts in 2026 and a hike in September 2027 [3], and Goldman Sachs has pushed its baseline cuts to 2027 [4]. Sportsbook lines on Kalshi show 100% odds for the Fed maintaining rates in January 2026 [5], whereas Polymarket assigns 80% to “No change” for the July 29 meeting [6], highlighting a meaningful gap between prediction-market optimism and institutional caution.

Traders should monitor the next FOMC dates, particularly the September 16 and October 28 meetings, where rate-cut odds are rising to 33.6% and 7.2% respectively [1]. Key catalysts include upcoming CPI and labour data releases, the Fed’s “dot plot” updates (last released in March), and any emergency liquidity actions that could trigger off-cycle cuts. As TD Securities notes, markets are pricing only five to six basis points for a January cut, with substantially more implied for March [2], suggesting that the real pivot point may lie in early 2026 data rather than mid-year expectations.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.