Bitcoin price on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Bitcoin’s settlement on 13 July 2026 hinges on the Binance 1-minute “Close” price for BTC/USDT at noon ET, with the market currently implying a 0% chance of the contract resolving YES. This near-zero probability reflects Bitcoin’s recent trading range around $63,800, well above the implied threshold that would trigger a YES outcome, suggesting the contract likely targets a price far below current levels or contains a misaligned bracket definition[3][5][6].

Historically, Bitcoin has shown resilience even during sharp drawdowns; in early July 2026, it dipped to $57,800—the lowest since May’s cycle low—before rebounding to $58,900 within hours, demonstrating strong intraday buyer support[1]. Comparable volatility episodes in 2024 and 2025 saw similar intraday swings of 5–8%, yet prices rarely sustained levels below $50,000 without macro catalysts, making a sub-threshold close on a specific noon ET candle statistically improbable under current conditions.

Traders should monitor the US Federal Reserve’s mid-July meeting schedule, potential ETF flow data, and any unexpected regulatory announcements from the SEC, as these could trigger short-term volatility. Recent Binance reports note balanced sentiment through August with forecasts averaging $87,000, reinforcing the view that a dramatic price collapse to trigger a YES resolution is unlikely absent a systemic shock[2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.